Five

Its time to find a new lover.

I think its best to approach this task in the same way I approach most things...academically. Lets start with some market sizing shall we?

There are roughly 5.2 million residents of the city where I live.

For the purpose of my analysis I will assume that the gender split is 50/50, the life expectancy of the average woman is 80 years, and that the age distribution is uniform across ten year intervals from 1 to the expected 80 years of age (that is, the number of women age 11-20 is the same as the number of women age 71-80).

For obvious reasons I will further restrict myself to women age 21-50.

So the rough number of women in my city that fall into the desireable age range is:

(5,200,000) x (1/2) x (3/8) = 975,000

Well that is encouraging!

However, this is where it gets tough. First I need to estimate the number of those women who are married, because I prefer married partners. Per a 2006 NY Times article, 49.7% of all American households were comprised of married couples (both with and without children). While not a perfect statistic since it is somewhat dated and describes households, it is the best estimate I can find. Since the article alludes to a downward trend, lets call it 49% and say it represents the chances that any given woman (of age) is married. Therefore:

(975,000) x (49%) = 477,750

But how many of these woman share my loose morals? Even tougher.

I need to consider a great number of variables when trying to estimate a proportion. First, the research seems to consistently find that men are more likely to cheat than women. Seems intuitive. Second, there also seems to be some evidence that younger generations, for example those currently under 30 years of age, are more prone to infidelity. The socio-cultural implications of this research are interesting enough to have their own post. Someday. And third, meta-analysis of the extant research places the incidence of infidelity between 30% and 60% over the course of a marriage. That is a very wide range.

I am going to take some statistical liberty, as well as a conservative view, and say that 20% of women are capable/interested/willing to cheat.

Why so low you may ask? Haven't we just seen evidence to suggest higher?

I think there are a number of qualitative factors, such as lack of time and opportunity, that drive the number lower. In fact I think the 20% is quite generous. Here is where we are:

(477,750) x (20%) = 95,550

That is still a pretty big number, but I think a reasonable estimate.

Lets break it down a little more just to make it more digestible. If I assume that the metropolitan area in which I live is roughly 8,000 square miles, then:

(95,550) / (8,000) = 11.94 (lets call it 12)

There are (very) roughly 12 married women between 21 years of age and 50 years of age, that are amenable to cheating on their significant others, per square mile in my city.

Great!

In future posts I will explore desirable characteristics, hunting grounds (if you will), approach techniques, etc.

I know I am a nerd. But its good to have a plan.